аЯрЁБс>ўџ 57ўџџџ4џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџьЅС%` №ПNbjbjЎѕЎѕ 8&ЬŸЬŸNџџџџџџЄммммммм№tttt№ш ЖААААА‹‹‹g i i i i i i $ž hъ м ‹‹   ммААлЂ w w w  мАмАg w  g w w ммw АЄ €3ЧјUеШt w g И 0ш w №' F№w №мw №‹Zх@w % 4Y Ў‹‹‹  m ‹‹‹ш     №№№„t№№№t№№№ммммммџџџџ INDUSTRY & OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Development of the Industry and Occupational Employment Projections: Methodologies and Use of the Data These projections, which are neither predictions nor forecasts, reflect long-term economic and demographic trends. The projections were developed using basic time series and regression models. The industry employment projections use the nonfarm wage salary employment definition of employment. The primary data input is an employment time series, by industry, which goes back to 1990. Staff has the option of using shorter time periods if they will improve the quality of the projection. Other variables, such as population and national industry employment projections developed by BLS, are also used in the models. The national employment projections are an especially important input. We coordinate our employment projections with the New Jersey long-term population and labor force projections to insure that the projection series are reasonable and consistent. A more complete description of the methodologies The methodology uses time series and regression models to develop preliminary employment projections by industry. A “final” industry projection is selected based on the statistical properties of the model and the reasonableness of the projection. In evaluating the projections, forecast and other projections for New Jersey, developed by other organizations such as Rutgers Economic Advisory Service and Global Insight, were considered. The projections were also circulated to appropriate staff in the Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research to review for reasonableness and consistency. The employment projections developed through this process are an extrapolation of longer-term and more current demographic and economic trends into the future. The projections essentially show what the New Jersey economy will look like at some future point if present trends continue. These projections are not goal or policy driven. Future projections will, of course, be altered by any policy changes or initiatives which alter current and future business practices and employment trends. The projections are not intended to be precise point estimates of employment for each industry. The standard error of estimate and the quality of each projection will vary, depending on the stability and quality of the time series used to develop the projection. The projections are valuable data for identifying future employment growth or decline. There is, however, no attempt to pinpoint the business cycle in these projections. That is, the projections are based on long-term trends. No attempt is made to determine whether the projected year is a peak year or a trough in the business cycle. Within the context of these projections, employment refers to jobs, both full and part-time, not the number of employed persons. Since some people work at more than one job, fewer persons may be employed than the number of estimated jobs in the projections. Projections are more reliable the broader an industry is defined and less reliable as the industries become increasingly detailed. The accuracy of the projections for individual industries may be subject to error because of unknown factors and changing trends and technologies that will affect the economy and the demand for labor over the projection period. For example, increases in productivity and new production technologies have significantly reduced the demand for manufacturing workers even though output in many of these industries is still high. Additionally, movement of a large company into or out of the state or a large expansion of an existing company, which cannot be reliably predicted, could greatly alter employment levels within an industry and compromise the projections for that industry. As technology changes, the same efficiencies can be achieved with fewer workers. Many firms use retirement within their workforce as a means of downsizing operations over time. For more information on the industry and occupational employment projections, contact Jason Timian at (609) 777-3535. 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